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Greece - Financial Services, Economy & Statistics

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Euro adoption plans, timetable may need adjustments to reduce risk

Boris Groendahl and Krisztina Than - 18.11.2009

The eastern European members of the EU need to adjust their timetables for joining the eurozone or they risk creating new credit bubbles with overly ambitious plans.

"The recent financial crisis ... has moved euro adoption further into the future," European Central Bank Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell said.

"Overly ambitious timetables for adopting the euro can be rather costly for the country concerned. This may encourage market participants to pursue strategies which may prove risky if the timetable turns out not to be achievable."

In the past, ambitious timetables have led to credit bubbles in central and eastern Europe.

"Individual countries' timetables have to be carefully looked at and adjustments may be necessary," Tumpel-Gugerell told a conference hosted by Austria's central bank.

Balkan countries Greece and Slovenia are among the 16 countries that enjoy the protection of eurozone membership, while Bulgaria, which gained EU entry in 2007, is seen adopting the euro as its currency eventually.

A Reuters poll last week showed analysts expect Estonia to be the next country from central Europe to join the eurozone in 2012, while further entrants would not come before 2014.

Europe's monetary union continues to provide stability to even its most fragile and indebted members such as Greece during the current financial crisis.

But rushing into the common currency will not help central and eastern European countries, which have been hit hard by the crisis in part because most of their currencies float.

"Euro adoption should not be seen as a quick fix to economic vulnerabilities. (Euro membership) does not eliminate the need to work out underlying imbalances," EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia told the conference.

"An accelerated euro area enlargement that would require a waiver or a loosening of the entry criteria specified by the treaty is not an option."

The main challenge now is the budget deficit target, as many emerging European countries have loosened fiscal policy to fight the financial crisis.

"Against the backdrop of the current crisis, the discussion is revolving around the fiscal stance of countries," Austrian central bank chief Ewald Nowotny said.

"It is ... a challenge to manage the trade-off between providing support to those hit hardest by the crisis and correcting fiscal imbalances to ensure sustainability and to qualify for (euro entry)."

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