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Government forecasting institute IMAD worsened its GDP outlook for 2014 to -0.8% YY from -0.2% initially, after a 2.4% contraction this year, followed by a recovery of 0.4% in 2015. The worsening IMAD forecast reflects later banking resolution, which also forced us to cut our GDP forecast for 2014 to -0.5% (-0.3% initially) after -2.2% in 2013, despite improving our outlook on foreign demand (even slightly above consensus in 2014), which we expect to support recovery of export growth to almost 4% YY in 2014, while IMAD assumes 3%.
Comment: It is more than clear that the later banking resolution is applied, the worse the economic outlook is likely to be, which will definitely put the Slovene economy into an adverse circle that will finally require more fiscal consolidation. In other words, the political representatives should find a way to quickly privatize all state-owned banks once the recapitalization requirements are announced. While the EC/ECB mission, which is currently in Slovenia, is unlikely to result in an ESM bailout (as the asset quality review and stress test exercises will be finished by end October and policy proposals by end November), the mission will evaluate the fulfillment of the Council recommendations from June this year, which however, included among others also the banking sector resolution and fiscal consolidation, which we think will be not positive for Slovenia due to fiscal consolidation based on the revenue side, which we discussed in Euro Area: Sovereign Debt Crisis Update of 30 September.
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