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Turkey's growth, which was stronger than anticipated in 1H (3.7% YoY), should be adversely affected by worsening global financial conditions and a consequent rise in Turkey's borrowing costs.
Although downside risks to the momentum are increasing, GDP growth, combined with a weak TRY, should contain the C/A deficit over the coming period, and export markets too should recover. However, this may still cause TRY assets to decouple from EM counterparts in possible sell-offs.
In this environment, the CBT has opted to increase policy predictability by capping interest rates at least until year-end, but external pressures may force the CBT to tighten its policy. In our base-case scenario, the CBT will start raising the overnight lending rate and the policy rate in 2014.
Related News in English
Povezane vesti na srpskom
Συναφείς Ειδήσεις στα Ελληνικά