World trade growth in 2013 and 2014 is likely to be slower than previously forecast

World trade growth in 2013 and 2014 is likely to be slower than previously forecast. WTO economists now predict 2013 growth of 2.5% (down from the 3.3% forecast in April), and 4.5% in 2014 (down from 5.0%), but they say conditions for improved trade are gradually falling into...

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World trade growth in 2013 and 2014 is likely to be slower than previously forecast



Balkans.com Business News Correspondent - 20.09.2013

World trade growth in 2013 and 2014 is likely to be slower than previously forecast. WTO economists now predict 2013 growth of 2.5% (down from the 3.3% forecast in April), and 4.5% in 2014 (down from 5.0%), but they say conditions for improved trade are gradually falling into place. MAIN POINTS •World merchandise trade is set to grow 2.5% in 2013, very close to the 2.3% rate seen in 2012. •Trade growth should accelerate to 4.5% in 2014, still below the average rate of 5.4% for the last 20 years (1982-2012). •Imports of the EU from the rest of the world fell 2% in the first half of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012, hitting the exports of its trading partners. •Imports of Developing economies and CIS have continued to grow strongly in 2013 (up 5% for the year to date), partly cushioning the drop in the EU and stagnation in the US. •Risks to the forecast are more balanced than in the past, since world trade growth could be higher than forecast if the EU rebounds relatively quickly from its recession.  The most conspicuous downside risk is the phasing out of unconventional monetary policy in the US. The demand for imports in developing economies is reviving but at a slower rate than expected. This hindered the growth of exports from both developed and developing countries in the first half of 2013 and was the reason for the lower forecasts, they said. "There is a message for the WTO in this," said WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo. "The past two years of sluggish trade growth reinforce the need to make progress in the multilateral negotiations. "Although the trade slowdown was mostly caused by adverse macro WTO


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