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National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia released the Operational Monetary Policy Committee report stating that the recent macroeconomic indicators, in the context of their effects on the monetary policy were discussed at the meeting of the Operational Monetary Policy Committee.
The macroeconomic data released in August indicated that the economy of the Euro area came out of the recession in the second quarter of 2013, and pointed out to possible moderate economic growth also in the second half of the year. On the other hand, across the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. economy is in better condition and it is recovering with a faster pace, but certain macroeconomic indicators point to uncertainty regarding the self-sustainability of the economic growth.
The latest developments in the (FYR) Macedonia's economy do not suggest major changes in the environment for conducting monetary policy than previously estimated in August. Thus the annual increase in the inflation continued to decelerate and in August it equaled 2.8 %. The inflation realization is completely within the projections, and the latest estimations further suggest balanced risks about the projected average inflation of 2.8 % for 2013. The indicators for the economic activity point to GDP growth in the second quarter, conditioned by the increase in the industrial and construction activity, although with a somewhat more moderate pace than in the previous quarter. According to the preliminary data on the credit flows, in August the lending activity stagnated on a monthly basis, given the decrease in the lending to the corporate sector and the further growth in the credit support to the "households" sector. It is estimated that the risks related to the loans projection remain mostly downward, in conditions when the slow and uncertain economic recovery creates greater restraint of the banks for crediting. The conservative strategies of certain banking groups, present on the domestic market through their daughter banks, also effect negatively on the credit growth. The monthly deposit growth in the banking system accelerated in August, but the deposit potential is increasing with a slower dynamics than expected.
The liquidity of the banking system in the (FYR) Macedonia in August increased under the influence of autonomous factors, mostly due to the realized foreign exchange interventions. In line with the seasonal trends, but also under the influence of the positive economic trends in the third quarter of 2013, the supply of foreign exchange on the foreign exchange market increased, thus conditioning an improvement of the banks' foreign exchange positions, interventions towards purchase of foreign currency by the National Bank and additional accumulation of foreign reserves. In order to overcome the liquidity fluctuations, the banks were actively using the monetary instruments, and on the deposit market, the interbank transactions were with maturity up to 1 month.
In September 2013, the latest changes with the "reserve requirement" instrument, adopted by the National Bank (at the Council session in July) of (FYR) Macedonia, came into force. These measures provide further support to the growth in the Denar savings and stimulate the inflow of foreign capital into the domestic economy, as an additional source of funding of the banking system. These changes represent a continuation of the measures that the National Bank have taken with the "reserve requirement" instrument, for the purpose of monetary conditions relaxation and creating space to enhance the credit support to the private sector.
Taking into account the latest economic and market indicators, at the session of the Operational Monetary Policy Committee it was decided that the interest rate on the basic instrument, the CB bills, is set at an appropriate and low level. Consequently, it remained at 3.25 %, and on the auction it was decided to offer the CB bills at the due amount level (Denar 25,500 million). National Bank of FYR Macedonia
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