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Business Monitor International's report shows that Romania's economy as a whole is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in real terms during 2012, and BMI forecasts that growth in 2013 will be 1.7%, according to our Country Risk team's latest macroeconomic outlook. However, it is thought that the construction sector outperformed the economic growth rate. Underpinning our relative optimism for the sector is the strong performance of the roads and power sectors, along with an improving non-residential construction outlook. For 2013, BMI expects real growth of 1.9% for the construction industry, which is a return to growth after an estimated 0.9% contraction in 2012, which could in fact be revised upwards revealing an even smaller decline. Over the period 2014-2017, we expect that Romania's construction market will expand at annual rate of 3.2%, while the period 2018-2022 will see continued annual growth of around 3.1% in real terms, making for a reasonably auspicious longterm outlook in comparison to the previous years. Risks to our construction sector forecasts are to the downside, with Romania's exposure to the downturn in the eurozone market and structural barriers despite EU membership weighing heavy on growth. The risk to the generous renewables tariffs which have driven growth in the energy and utilities industry are also a major downside risk. Until the eurozone crisis fully abates, it is unlikely that the residential construction market will improve in light of concerns over job security and wages. BMI
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Povezane vesti na srpskom
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