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News: Coca-Cola Icecek has reported its 4Q12 IFRS, which came 5% ahead of our and consensus estimates on EBITDA, though below expectations on net incomeThe company posted consolidated revenue of TRY 845mn (up 26% YoY) driven by a 24% volume increase and 2% average price expansion, EBITDA of TRY 75mn (up 29% YoY) and net income of TRY 1mn (vs. a TRY 27mn loss last year). Total debt increased marginally to TRY 1,677 implying 1.6x leverage.
The company is due to host a conference call today at 17:30, Moscow time. The dial in details are as follows: UK +44 (0)1452 555 566, US +1 631 510 7498, confirmation code 17776898.
Our View: We remind investors that the fourth quarter is seasonally the lowest for the company's business (and the least important). SG&A expenses increased slightly below our forecast, which explains the EBIT miss. However, this was more than compensated for on the EBITDA level by the higher than expected depreciation. The significant miss on net income can be explained by the low base due to seasonality issues and so we think it will be discounted by the market.
Overall, the FY12 results are solid, with strong growth across the board. However, the stock is trading at 2013F EB/EBITDA of 15x (a 27% premium to EM peers) and we think most of the positive developments have already been priced in at this level. We are therefore reiterating our Hold recommendation and 12-month Target Price of TRY 38.
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