Gold will reach a new record of $2000 later this year-Capital Economics

Investors were recently unnerved to see a particular signal at the end of last month, gold's  "death cross", when the price's 50-day rolling average drops below its 200-day moving average. Two out of the last three such "death crosses" were followed...

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Gold will reach a new record of $2000 later this year-Capital Economics



Balkans.com Business News Correspondent - 11.03.2013

Investors were recently unnerved to see a particular signal at the end of last month, gold's  "death cross", when the price's 50-day rolling average drops below its 200-day moving average. Two out of the last three such "death crosses" were followed by marked sell-offs reports Sydney Morning Herald.

As sentiment turned more bearish, an eye-catching note from Goldman Sachs grabbed attention. The bank cut its forecast for the gold price this year to $1600 an ounce from $1810, and predicted that next year the price will be $1450.

"The turn in the gold cycle has likely already started," the bank's analysts warned, pointing to "a quickly waning conviction in holding gold positions, especially ETFs".

Goldman is not the only one to notice that, Mr Paulson aside, holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold have been shrinking at a rapid rate. On Thursday, they fell to 2486.2 tonnes, the lowest since September, according to data from Bloomberg. The waning enthusiasm for gold among the ETF investors is being treated as particularly significant, as they are seen as long-term "buy and hold" types rather than more speculative investors.

Recent weeks have also seen other investment banks express similar views on the gold price to Goldman, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse and Citigroup, to name a few of those turning sour.

But there is no consensus. Bank of America Merrill Lynch still expects prices to rise strongly next year to an average of $1838 an ounce, although it sees prices turning lower in 2015.

At the more extreme end of forecasts, Capital Economics, the UK economics consultancy, says gold will reach a new record of $2000 later this year, warning that the eurozone will flare up again and the rally in equity markets may run out of steam. That is not quite as eye-popping a forecast as it might seem, as when the impact of inflation is factored in, the price of gold was considerably higher, at about $2400 an ounce in "real" terms, in early 1980.

Crucially, Capital does not see the ETF movement as driving the gold price in the future, but rather reflecting what has already happened. If the price rises, investors would soon be heading back in, argues Ross Strachan, Capital's commodities analyst. "You tend to get people looking at it as they are flowing out, that should push the price down. But to some extent that has already happened," he notes.

Still, he admits: "There is an inherent difficulty in valuing gold – it's much trickier than for almost any asset you care to name." Bears and bulls beware.


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