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The Treasury's February cash budget produced a TRY 2.1bn primary deficit in February, close to our TRY 2.4bn deficit estimate. Meanwhile, the overall cash deficit came in at TRY 6.4bn, better than we had presumed as the Treasury registered TRY 0.7bn in privatization proceeds.
The TRY 6.2bn in February tax collections deferrals to March was responsible for the sizeable cash deficit. However, even if we correct for this noise in the tax collections, the primary surplus deteriorated compared to February 2012. On the other hand, the interest payments were significantly below that of February 2012 and this led to an improvement in the overall cash balance in y/y terms.
The cash figures may translate into a decline in the 12-month rolling primary surplus to GDP ratio to 1.5% from January's 1.7%, while the budget deficit to GDP ratio may improve to 1.6% from 1.7%.
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