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Economy Minister Caglayan said that gold exports may decline this year due to abating demand. This is bad news for the C/A deficit, however, we had already incorporated such a decline in our forecasts. Recall that we expect the C/A deficit to increase to 6.9% of GDP by the end of 2013 from an estimated 6.2% in 2012. As a reminder, the increase in gold exports was more evident in 2H12, therefore, the adverse impact of the narrowing gold trade on the C/A deficit should be felt more visibly in 2H13 due to the base effect.
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