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Based on Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) data, retail prices in Istanbul declined by 0.18% m/m in January, close to the 0.22% decline registered in the same month of last year. Seasonal discounts in the clothing group was the man driver of the decline in the headline reading. The ITO index's food component is usually a better gauge for TURKSTAT's CPI, though the relation has weakened somewhat recently. The food component posted a 2.32% monthly increase in January that slightly superseded the 1.93% increase in the same month of last year. Note that alcoholic beverages and tobacco are included in the food segment, according to ITO terminology, whereas it is reported as a separate group in CPI. Recall that the prices of the alcoholic beverages and tobacco group is expected to rise sharply in January due to the tax hike. In other words, it is harder to make inferences for TURKSTAT's CPI this time. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that the vegetables and fruits group registered a 5% m/m increase in Istanbul in January, which supports our anticipation of an acceleration in food inflation.
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