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We forecast a USD 8.1bn deficit, which is much lower than the USD 9.0bn consensus. The difference between our forecast and the market consensus is mainly linked to imports. We expect imports to remain limited at USD 20.5bn, which will be flat y/y, whereas the consensus is higher at USD 22.0bn. As for exports, we penciled in USD 12.5bn assuming some USD 800mn in gold exports. The consensus for exports is higher at USD 12.9bn. All in all, if the trade deficit comes in larger than our expectations, this would mark the first y/y increase in the trade deficit since October 2011.
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Povezane vesti na srpskom
Συναφείς Ειδήσεις στα Ελληνικά