In its 4Q12 results, we expect to see a strong recovery in the net interest income, which will compensate for the sharp decline in the trading income and contribute to the bottom-line. Below, we summarize our key 4Q12 expectations: 
1. Loan growth: Considering Garanti's management guidance and the details highlighted in the presentation associated with the operating budget guidelines for 2013, we estimate ca.3% q/q growth in total loans. On a segment basis, we expect to see 3.2% q/q growth in TL loans and 3.5% q/q growth in FX loans in USD terms. We expect TL loan growth to be driven mainly by retail loans, primarily by mortgage (+4.5% q/q) and general purpose loans (+4.7% q/q). 
2. Funding: We anticipate a sharp decline in TL deposits to the tune of 5.5% q/q as the bank refrained from participating in pricing competition and diversified its funding base. Meanwhile, we look for ca.3% q/q growth in FX deposits in USD terms. 
3. Margins: We estimate a ca.190bp q/q improvement in the NIM mainly thanks to the higher interest income earned from CPI-linkers (TRY11bn forming 9% of the IEA as of 9M12) and lower declining funding costs. As we expect to see a major decline in trading income (4Q12E: TRY10mn vs. TRY452mn in 3Q12) and higher LLP charges, we compute a relatively lower improvement in the adjusted net interest margin by 50bp q/q in Q412. 
4. Provisions: We estimate Garanti Bank to register a gross cost of risk of 95bp in 4Q412 vs. 111bp in 3Q12. Based on our forecast, our full year gross cost of risk estimate for 2012 will stand at 96bp vs. 93bp in 2011 and appear in line with the full year cost of risk guidance of less than100bp. Separately, we also expect Garanti Bank to book TRY60mn in provisions, which are related with the loans originating before 2006. 
5. Operating expenses: We look for only a 2% y/y increase in Garanti Bank's operating expenses due to the high base that has prevailed in 4Q11. Accordingly, we look for 12% y/y growth in operating expenses in 2012. 
Source: bne