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News: Anadolu Efes has announced its 4Q12 trading results. In Turkey, sales volumes reached 1.95mhl, down 1.6% YoY. The international segment posted sales volumes of 3.9mhl, up 40.3% YoY. Total volumes stood at 5.85mhl in 4Q12 (up 22.9%) and 28.41mhl in 2012 (23.5%).
Our View: Beer volumes came 11% above our forecasts in 4Q12 and 2% above for 2012. Thus, we do not see material risks to our FY12 revenues forecasts.
Organic volumes were weak in 4Q12, in both Turkey and Russia: domestic results declined for the second consecutive quarter (1.6% YoY in 4Q12 and 1.7% YoY in 3Q12). The quarterly drop came on the back of 12% average price increase after the 17% excise hike (effective 22 September). The international results were disturbed by the consolidation of SABMiller's operations, acquired in March 2012. On a LFL basis, volumes lost 9.5% YoY in 4Q12 and 6.1% YoY in FY12. The downbeat trends were caused by the integration process and tightening Russian regulations on the consumption of beer in public places, as well as sales at kiosks.
All in all, total organic beer volumes declined 7% YoY in 4Q12 and 3.8% YoY in FY12. We do not expect the results to cause a material move in the market as the growth metrics were in line with management guidance. The negative sentiment is also to be offset by the strong trading update provided by Coca-Cola Icecek (a 50.3% stake belongs to Anadolu). Soft drinks sales volumes added 11.7% YoY in FY12, underpinned by 9.9% YoY LFL growth and healthy trading dynamics across major foreign countries.
The stock trades at 6% and 13% discounts to EM peers on 2013F EV/EBITDA and P/E, respectively. We view this as demanding, taking into account the ongoing (though moderating) risks of further regulatory restrictions in Efes' beer markets. We are reiterating our Hold recommendation and 12-month Target Price of TRY 28.
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