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Recap of last week. ISE100 was up 1.8% last week, increasing the year to date performance in 2013 to 3.6. MSCI Turkey was up 4.1% YTD, outperforming the MSCI EM Europe index 1.6% so far in 2013.
Benchmark bond yield below 6% again. Strong demand for the new issuances of Turkish government bonds last week. The new benchmark bond was issued at 6.1%, and then fell to 5.9%. A total decline of 36bp over the week was the largest decrease within key EMs.
Profit taking in Garanti post 2013 budget guidance. Garanti fell 1.7% last week, the worst performing bank, pulling the overall performance of the index down. The market seems to be disappointed by Garanti's flat NIM guidance for 2013 compared with the previous indication of a 20bp margin expansion.
Dogan group rallied on no news. The major movers of last week were DOHOL (+18%) and DYHOL (+16%) on no particular newsflow. The market is set to watch for potential newsflow on Dogan media companies.
November CA deficit at USD 4.5bn. Despite being the highest deficit of the last six months, the 12-mo rolling deficit still receded to USD 51.9bn. The current account deficit is forecasted to increase in line with the expected economic recovery.
Outlook for this week. The key data releases are unemployment for October (Tue) and Consumer Confidence Index for December (Wed). A strong CC index could be supportive for the market.
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