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Some analysts are predicting that Slovenia will be the next country forced to seek rescue funds from the EU, but East Capitals chief economist, Marcus Svedberg, believes that it doesnt have to be that drastic.
In the midst of a difficult recession, with high unemployment, budget deficits, high debts, high bond yields, and banks with a high proportion of bad loans, Slovenias problems resemble Spains. However, there are some crucial differences between the two.
"Slovenia is a relatively young market that is used to rapid reforms, Svedberg said. Slovenia is also the richest of the Eastern European economies. The primary error it made is that in recent years it waited too long to make necessary reforms. Now, it is likely to implement them.
What reforms are needed? "What we are mainly talking about is a major privatisation program, where a number of large state-owned enterprises will be offered for sale. It is also about reforming the labour market and pension system. Reforms that have been discussed for years look like they will actually be implemented.
The Slovenian stock market has not been slow to react. Since the end of August it has gone up around 20 percent, making it one of the strongest markets in the world.
Despite that, there are still many observers who believe that Slovenia may seek direct assistance from the EU rescue fund.
"I am confident that Slovenia will not have to seek support from the EU's rescue fund, but the country may need help to recapitalise their banks," Svedberg said.
It may sound extreme measure, but a recapitalisation of Slovenian banks would actually not be a large task for EMU.
"For the Euro Zone as a whole, its not a significant amount. The Slovenian GDP, for example, equals half of the amount that will be used to support the Spanish banking system, Svedberg explained.
The real test for Slovenia will come later in the autumn, when the country needs to borrow money in the bond markets.
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Povezane vesti na srpskom
Συναφείς Ειδήσεις στα Ελληνικά