What was the contribution of household and government consumption to GDP growth in 2Q in Turkey, Croatia?

What was the contribution of household and government consumption to GDP growth in 2Q and what are your expectations in this area for the remainder of the year? In Hungary, household consumption contributed 0.2pp to the 1.5% y/y growth in the second quarter, while government...

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What was the contribution of household and government consumption to GDP growth in 2Q in Turkey, Croatia?



Erste - 12.09.2011

What was the contribution of household and government consumption to GDP growth in 2Q and what are your expectations in this area for the remainder of the year?

In Hungary, household consumption contributed 0.2pp to the 1.5% y/y growth in the second quarter, while government consumption did not contribute. In the remainder of the year, the inflation-adjusted yield paid to households (after private pension funds transferred to the government) should give a one-off impetus to consumption, but the strong Swiss franc should decrease this effect. Government consumption should be also very sluggish for the remainder of the year. The contribution of these items to growth may thus not be at significantly higher levels in the second half of the year. Zoltan Arokszallasi, Erste Bank Hungary

Both household and government consumption made a negative contribution to the 2Q11 real GDP growth of Romania (-0.5pp and -0.1pp, respectively). For the remainder of the year, government consumption could remain negative, while household consumption is likely to make a positive contribution to real GDP, helped by a bumper agricultural output. Florin Eugen Sinca, Banca Comerciala Romana

Second quarter GDP will be released next week in Turkey, but we expect the annual contribution from household consumption to the expected 5% annual growth to be 3.5pp, down from a 4.7pp contribution to the 2010 growth of 8.9%. The contribution from government consumption, on the other hand, is expected to remain stable at around 0.2pp. Ozlem Derici, Erste Securities Istanbul

In the Czech Republic, government and households were negative contributors to both the q/q and y/y growth rates - government consumption fell 0.6% q/q in the first and the second quarter alike, while household consumption fell 0.5% q/q and 0.2% q/q in the respective quarters. This is clearly a consequence of fiscal restriction, as well as the slow recovery of the labor market. For the next couple of quarters, not much will change in this respect - domestic consumption will remain depressed. Next year, the government is set to tighten further (although less than this year) and households will be under pressure because of a higher VAT rate - consumption will remain depressed in 2013 as well. Martin Lobotka, Ceska sporitelna

In Croatia, the detailed 2Q GDP breakdown is yet to be published, while monthly frequency indicators are suggesting a rebound of household consumption into the positive zone, where we expect figures in the region of around 1% y/y. Similar performance is expected to extend into 3Q, backed by solid tourist season performance. Public consumption maintains a largely stagnant performance, with some potential for an uptick in 3Q, with the approaching elections ahead in 4Q. Anela Tomic, Erste Bank Croatia.

The data for 2Q has still not been published, but Ukrainian household consumption probably contributed around 6% growth to the 3.8% figure. Since 2005, there was a huge income convergence for households, due to the fast rise of pension expenditures (now at 17% of GDP) and minimum wages. We expect household consumption growth to moderate by year end, as its share in GDP has reached maximum sustainable levels, otherwise, we will see significant trade balance widening. The government has already limited the minimum wage growth to the expected inflation rate in 2011, in order to limit household income growth. Maryan Zablotskyy, Erste Bank Ukraine.

The contribution of Slovak household consumption to the annual GDP growth was near to zero in the past four quarters. Increasing employment and compensations translate into higher savings thus far. The situation will likely remain similar in future, as households will remain cautious. Further employment gains may lead to some small positive contribution from households. Government consumption is declining along with fiscal consolidation, but the decline will be smaller next year, as the magnitude of fiscal consolidation will be smaller than it was this year. Maria Valachyova, Slovenska sporitelna

Source: bne

 


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